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- Global warming will reach 2.6°C by 2100 if no new policy support is offered and technologies are adopted only when they become cost-competitive, say signatories of a letter published today.
- Clean electrification, with electricity meeting over 50% of final energy demand by mid-century, and phasing down coal use for electricity generation could cut projected warming to around 2.3°C, with low or no cost.
- But projected temperatures will not reach below 2°C without action to decarbonise heavy industry, aviation and shipping, deeply cut methane emissions and end deforestation.
- Combined, these five priority action areas could reduce warming to around 1.8°C – but this is not cost-free and requires policy support.
- Exponential growth in carbon removals is required to bring potential warming down to 1.5°C.
Over 30 members of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) today urge COP31 President Murat Kurum and President of Negotiations Chris Bowen to put clean electrification and the hard-to-electrify sectors at the centre of the climate summit's outcome, as new ETC analysis shows current policies leave the world on course for 2.6°C of warming.
Their letter, published today alongside the ETC briefing Still vital, still possible: How governments and businesses can work together to limit global warming, comes days before negotiators gather in Türkiye. Signatories include ETC Commissioners from Arup, Envision, Grantham Research Institute (LSE), Octopus Energy, Rothschild, Schneider Electric, Tata Steel, and Vattenfall alongside other leaders from clean power and utilities, heavy industry, transport, and finance.
The signatories ask the Presidency to place two priorities at the centre of the COP31 outcome:
- Accelerate clean electrification by backing the target of 35% electrification by 2035 and developing country strategies to deliver it.
- Act on the hard-to-electrify sectors by committing globally to faster decarbonisation of steel, cement, aluminium, chemicals, aviation and shipping, including through carbon prices.
The letter pushes back against a growing discourse suggesting the Paris goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C is out of reach. It argues this narrative risks weakening climate policy and corporate commitments just as clean technologies reach scale. Conversely, strong commitments on clean electrification and the hard-to-electrify sectors could relaunch the 'ambition loop' of policy, private investment and falling technology costs that followed the Paris Agreement and already curbed future warming projections from upper bounds of 4°C to 2.6°C.
"Keeping global warming well below 2°C is still vital and still possible," said Adair Turner, Co-Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission. "Costs of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles have fallen faster than forecast 10 years back, reducing the danger of catastrophic global warming above 3°C. But with unchanged policies, we're still on track to about 2.6°C by 2100. To keep well below 2°C, we must turbocharge clean electrification which in many applications will deliver both lower emissions and lower costs. But we must also meet more difficult challenges – reducing the utilisation of existing coal plants; decarbonising heavy industry, shipping and aviation; and radically reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel production and agriculture. In many cases, this will entail accepting some increased costs, but these costs are far less than the cost of unchecked climate change."
"Clean electrification has momentum, like a boulder rolling downhill. We need to clear its path with faster grids and permitting for it to accelerate. Heavy industry, methane, deforestation and removals are like boulders stuck at the foot of the hill, needing carbon prices and finance to push them uphill. Move both and we take almost a degree off future warming with a huge impact: fewer wildfires, floods and failed harvests, and a lower risk of irreversible tipping points," said Jules Kortenhorst, Co-Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission.
What the ETC's new analysis shows
Clean electrification can deliver the biggest cut to projected warming, to around 2.3°C. That involves building the new energy system and phasing out the old: electricity's share of final energy rises from 20% to over 50% by 2050, and coal falls to under 5% of power. Past forecasts underestimated falling solar and battery costs, so faster electrification could cut bills and emissions. Only early coal retirement carries a clear cost.
Decarbonising heavy industry, aviation and shipping can remove about 0.2°C, but faces a green premium. However, green steel costs around 45% more than conventional steel, but only adds around 1.2% to the price of a car. Carbon prices of around $100 per tonne, close to EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) prices today and in the coming years, would drive decarbonisation of steel and cement; aviation and shipping need $200–300 per tonne.
A cut of around 45% in annual fossil, agricultural and waste methane emissions by 2050 removes about 0.2°C. Ending deforestation by 2035 removes a further 0.07°C.
Returning warming to 1.5°C by 2100 is more costly, requiring over 500 Gt of CO₂ removals this century, costing over $500 billion a year, or about 0.4% of today's global GDP. Today, purchased removals total less than 20 Mt per year.
The ETC is a global coalition of leaders from energy producers, energy-intensive industries, technology providers, finance and environmental NGOs, committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, in line with the Paris climate objective of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C. The ETC is hosted by Systemiq Ltd.
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